How Nanded Voted in 2024: The Curious Case of Voter Choices and Electoral Controversy
Elections in India often present fascinating insights into voter behavior, particularly when Lok Sabha and Assembly polls occur simultaneously. The recent elections (November-2024) in Nanded are a prime example where Congress won the Lok Sabha by-election by a narrow margin of 1,457 votes, but BJP+ swept all six Assembly seats with a lead of around 1.8 lakh votes over Congress. This divergence in voting patterns has sparked debates, raising questions about electoral integrity and also the behavior of Indian voters. This sharp contrast sparked debates on social media questioning how the same voters, on the same day, could choose two different parties or candidates.
This curiosity led me to dive deeper into the data to analyze how voters align their choices differently when it comes to the goals of state versus central governance.
Disclaimer: I have no affiliation with any political party or organization. The analysis and observations presented in this blog is purely from personal curiosity about voter behavior. All data referenced here has been sourced from the Election Commission of India’s official website (links provided in the end). This post is an impartial exploration of publicly available information and does not aim to support, oppose, or claim anything beyond the scope of the analysis.
Let’s dive into details
The first question came into my mind after seeing the viral image was: Did some voters cast their vote in the Assembly EVM but skip voting on the Lok Sabha EVM and leave the booth? To investigate this, I collected data on the total votes cast in both elections.
In Nanded, the total difference in EVM votes between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections was just 15. This means only 15 people voted in the Assembly election but didn’t press the button in the Lok Sabha EVM. On the other hand, when it came to ballot papers, the difference was slightly higher — 201 votes. This data clearly shows that almost everyone who participated made their choice in both elections.
The next question was: How did BJP+ win all six Assembly seats but lose the Lok Sabha seat? To understand this, I analyzed the party-wise voting data from the Election Commission of India for both elections.
In the Lok Sabha election, BJP+ secured 5,85,331 votes, compared to 6,12,062 votes in the Assembly elections — a difference of 26,731 votes. This means 26,731 voters who supported BJP in the Assembly chose a different party or candidate in the Lok Sabha.
On the other hand, Congress received 5,86,788 votes in the Lok Sabha but only 4,27,465 votes in the Assembly — a significant drop of 1,59,323 votes. This shows that a large number of voters who supported Congress for Parliament opted for other candidates in the Assembly elections. A key detail here is that Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress’s ally, contested independently in the Nanded North Assembly seat and received 22,706 votes. If these votes are combined with Congress’s tally, Congress could have won the Nanded North Assembly seat, highlighting the impact of split votes even among allies.
The next question was: If voters didn’t choose Congress in the Assembly elections, where did these votes go?
On closer analysis, a significant portion of the votes shifted to AIMIM, Shiv Sena (UBT), Independents, and other smaller parties in the Assembly elections. A pattern emerges where voters supported local parties or candidates in the Assembly but voted for Congress in the Lok Sabha, possibly seeing it as the most viable option to defeat BJP in the parliamentary race.
The additional votes received by each party in the Assembly, when combined, add up to approximately 1,57,341 votes. This aligns closely with Congress’s vote difference between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections (1,59,323 votes). Here’s the breakdown of the extra votes:
- AIMIM: +14,450
- VBA: +12,946
- Shiv Sena (UBT): +22,706
- Independents: +76,796
- Others: +29,683
- NOTA: +760
On the flip side, some parties received fewer votes in the Assembly compared to the Lok Sabha. The combined difference here is around 25,551 votes, which is close to BJP’s vote difference between the two elections (26,731 votes). Breakdown of less votes received:
- BBP: -3,546
- INL: -19,809
- JLP: -1,744
- R. Sena: -452
This shift indicates that voters made different choices for state and central leadership, aligning with their priorities for local governance versus national politics.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on combining vote differences to identify patterns and is not a direct match of voter behavior. It presents a hypothesis to understand voting trends and how voters may have chosen different candidates for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
Conclusion
The Nanded elections provide a fascinating glimpse into the complexities of Indian voter behavior. The same voters demonstrated distinct preferences for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, reflecting a nuanced understanding of the roles played by state and central governments. While Congress emerged victorious in the parliamentary seat, BJP dominated the Assembly elections, showcasing how voters often balance their choices based on governance needs at different levels.
Factors such as local dynamics, alliances, and the presence of smaller parties like AIMIM and Shiv Sena (UBT) influenced Assembly outcomes, while Congress was seen as the primary challenger to BJP in the parliamentary race. This voting pattern underscores the strategic and diverse nature of Indian democracy, where voters weigh their options carefully before casting their votes.
Key Takeaways
- Split Voting: The stark difference between Lok Sabha and Assembly results highlights the phenomenon of split voting, where voters prioritize different parties for local and national governance.
- Role of Smaller Parties: Regional and smaller parties like AIMIM, Shiv Sena (UBT), and independents gained significant ground in the Assembly elections, reflecting strong local preferences.
- Voter Strategy: Voters may perceive Congress as a viable option to challenge BJP nationally, while opting for other candidates locally to address state-level concerns.
- Hypothesis on Voting Patterns: The analysis suggests that voters make conscious, goal-oriented decisions, balancing their choices for state and central leadership.
Final Thoughts
This case study reinforces the complexity and sophistication of Indian voters. By analyzing voting trends and patterns, we can better understand the dynamics of democracy in India and appreciate the critical role of informed voter behavior in shaping the country’s political landscape.
I am leaving below screenshots for your reference, which show the detailed assembly-wise vote pattern for all parties. Feel free to analyze the data for a deeper understanding of voter behavior across different parties and constituencies.
I will be conducting a similar analysis for the Tirupati seat, as it presented a similar situation during the May 2024 elections. In that election, YSRCP candidate Maddila Gurumoorthy won the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat, while the party lost all seven Assembly seats within the parliamentary constituency to the Telugu Desam Party-BJP-Jana Sena Party alliance. In these seven Assembly seats, YSRCP garnered a total of 5,61,014 votes, while the opposing coalition secured 7,52,542 votes. However, in the Lok Sabha poll, YSRCP received 6,32,228 votes, defeating the coalition candidate who got 6,17,659 votes.
References:
Short Names and Their Party Names:
- AIMIM: All India Majlis-E-Inquilab-E-Millat
- BJP: Bharatiya Janata Party
- BBP: Buland Bharat Party
- INC: Indian National Congress
- INL: Indian National League
- JLP: Janhit Lokshahi Party
- NOTA: None of the Above
- RSP: Rashtriya Samaj Paksha
- R Sena: Republican Sena
- Others: Includes many parties
- BJP+: BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde)
